求翻译：如果取a=0，则Zt+1’=Zt’,即下期预测值就等于本期预测值，在预测过程中不考虑任何新信息；若取a=1,则zt+1’=zt,即下期预测值等于本期观测值，完全不相信过去的信息。这两种极端的情况都很难作出正确的预测，因此a值应根据时间序列的具体性质在0——1之间进行选择，具体如何选择一般可遵循下列原则：是什么意思？

Take a = 0, zt +1' = zt ', that is, under the predictive value equal to the current predictive value in the forecasting process does not take into account any new information; If we take a = 1, zt +1' = zt of forecast value is equal to the current observations do not believe that the past informatio

If a = 0, then the Zt + 1' = ' Zt forecast period, the value is equal to the projected value, in the Forecast process does not take into account any new information; if a=1, The ZT+ 1' = ZT, the predictive value is equal to the current observation value, do not believe that information on the past.

If takes a=0, then Zt+1' =Zt', namely the next time forecast the value was equal to this issue of forecast value, does not consider any recent information in the forecast process; If takes a=1, then zt+1' =zt, namely the next time forecast the value was equal to this issue of observed value, did not

If you take a=0, Zt+1 ', =Zt ', under the term predictive value is equal to the forecast value for the current period, does not take into account any new information in the forecasting process; if taking a=1, ZT+1 ' =ZT, that is, prediction value is equal to the period under observation, does not be

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